When Retail Money Meets Smart Money

Retail investors have emerged as a formidable force in India’s equity markets, driven primarily by the rapid growth of mutual fund investments, especially...

The First Fed Cut: Historical Insights on Market Reactions Post-Rate Reduction

The Federal Reserve is expected to kick off a series of rate cuts on Wednesday, after having completed last year the most aggressive rate hike campaign in four decades. For investors, a key question may be whether the Fed will cut rates in time to avert a potential economic slowdown.

How The Banking Sector Shapes Our Economic Future

The Indian economy is currently on a slower growth trajectory than initially expected for CY 2024. Both the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and several global financial institutions have lowered their growth forecasts for the country. The health of the banking sector is a critical indicator of the broader economy, reflecting the intricate interplay between economic growth, bank credit growth, deposit growth, and interest rate spreads.

US Consumers’ Report Card: Rising Delinquencies and Dwindling Savings

Recent data on US consumer’s health points to a troubling financial trend among American consumers. The delinquency ...

Is JPY/XAU the Most Oversold Currency Pair in the World? Is this a Mouthwatering Opportunity?

We see a very interesting opportunity on a rare pair of JPY/XAU. Here, JPY is taken as 1 Lakh yen while XAU is the spot price of gold. This pair has been hitting new 15-year lows practically on a daily basis. As of now the ratio is at 0.2704. As recently as August 2018, this was trading at 0.763. This pair has been moving down for many years but the move in recent 2 months was particularly sharp and we believe…

The Most Stunning Divergence Ever between a country’s GDP and its Stock-Market

Germany has been a very unique story over the last few years where their GDP and Industrial production has been...

All that is Gold “Glitters”

The outlook is extremely positive right now and we believe it represents one of the best long term investment opportunities. There are enough macro indicators which support the case for investment into gold and we have pointed out many such factors in our previous macro insights and outlook reports. However, this macro insight is dedicated to the technical aspects of gold as an asset class.

Japanification of the World?

We believe that large parts of the world are currently exhibiting symptoms similar to Japan's challenges in the late 1980s. These include declining or stagnating total and working-age populations, an economy burdened by debt, and bubbles in both the equity and real estate markets.

Why the US Economy Did Not Hit a Recession in CY 2023 But is Likely to Enter One in CY 2024

At the end of CY 2022, there was nearly a consensus among economists and institutional investors that the US economy was going to hit a recession in CY 2023. We were not anticipating a recession at the time since the US economy had strong underpinnings in the form of strong consumer demand, particularly in the travel and leisure sector. This report will explain various factors that have actually led to strong economic growth in the US in CY 2023.